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Risk score to assess host susceptibility to develop severe COVID-19 - during hospital stay
A host risk score was developed on the basis of the three risk factors, to assess the intrinsic host susceptibility to develop severe cases of COVID-19 during hospital stay. 
Research authors: Shi Y, Yu X, Zhao H, Wang H, Zhao R, Sheng J
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★
Model author
Evidencio Community
Model ID
2122
Version
1.4
Revision date
2020-04-14
Specialty
Infectious disease, Intensive care, Internal medicine, Pulmonology
MeSH terms
  • Coronavirus, SARS
  • Clinical Prediction Rule
  • Factor, Prognostic
    • Model type
    Custom model (Conditional)
    Status
    public
    Rating
    ★ ★
    Share
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    A total of 487 COVID-19 patients were included for analysis, with 49 (10.1%) severe cases at admission. As shown in Table 1, severe cases are elderly (56 (17) vs. 45 (19), P < 0.001), with more male (73.5% vs. 50.9%, P = 0.003). They have a higher incidence of hypertension (53.1% vs. 16.7%, P < 0.001), diabetes (14.3% vs. 5.0%, P = 0.009), cardiovascular diseases (8.2% vs. 1.6%, P = 0.003), and malignancy (4.1% vs. 0.7%, P = 0.025), and less exposure to epidemic area (49.0% vs. 65.1%, P = 0.027), but more infected family members (P = 0.031). On multivariate analysis, elder age (OR 1.06 [95% CI 1.03–1.08], P < 0.001), male (OR 3.68 [95% CI 1.75–7.75], P = 0.001), and presence of hypertension (OR 2.71 [95% CI 1.32–5.59], P = 0.007) are independently associated with severe disease at admission, irrespective of adjustment of time to admission.

    Source: 
    Shi Y, Yu X, Zhao H, Wang H, Zhao R, Sheng J. Host susceptibility to severe COVID-19 and establishment of a host risk score: findings of 487 cases outside Wuhan. Crit Care 2020;24:108.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 487
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Age 46 19 years
    Time from onset of symptoms to admission 2 3 days

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Smoking history Yes 40
    No 434
    Unknown 13
    Co-morbidities Hypertension 99
    Diabetes 29
    Cardiovascular disease 11
    Malignancy 5
    Chronic liver disease 22
    Chronic renal disease 7
    Other 32
    Exposure to confirmed case Yes 186
    No 301
    Family cluster 0 392
    1 67
    2 12
    ≥3 16
    Recent travel to epidemic area Yes 309
    No 178
    Occupation Agricultural worker 140
    Self-employed 219
    Employee 82
    Retired 38
    Student 8
    Risk score to assess host susceptibility to develop severe COVID-19 - during hospital stay
    V-1.4-2122.20.04.14
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
    Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

    Related files

    Supporting Publications

    Predicted host risk to develop severe COVID-19 during hospital stay
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    Predicted host risk to develop severe COVID-19 during hospital stay %

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    Inteded use:
    The host risk score provides a useful tool to identify high-risk individuals, which is helpful for designing specific strategies for prevention and treatment of this disease.

    Progression to severe COVID-19 during hospital stay:
    The performance of the host risk score was validated in 66 patients who presented mild at admission and were under follow-up during hospital stay. Fifteen patients progressed to severe COVID-19 within a median follow-up time of 15 days. No death was reported by the end of follow-up.

    Study limitations: 
    Further studies, particularly those enrolling Wuhan patients, are needed to validate these first findings.

    Source: 
    Shi Y, Yu X, Zhao H, Wang H, Zhao R, Sheng J. Host susceptibility to severe COVID-19 and establishment of a host risk score: findings of 487 cases outside Wuhan. Crit Care 2020;24:108.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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