EORTC risk tables: Predicting recurrence and progression in stage Ta T1 bladder cancer patients. (1yr Progression)
In order to predict, separately, the short- and long-term risks of disease recurrence and progression in individual patients, the EORTC Genito-Urinary Cancer Group has developed a scoring system and risk tables.

The scoring system is based on the six most significant clinical and pathological factors. 

The EORTC tables were developed to provide an easy calculation of the estimated recurrence, and progression probabilities of bladder cancer over 1- and 5-years. Current model calculates the 1-year probability of disease progression. 
Research authors: Richard J. Sylvester, Adrian P.M. van der Meijden, Willem Oosterlinck, J. Alfred Witjes, Christian Bouffioux, Louis Denis, Donald W.W. Newling, Karlheinz Kurth
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
Model author
Model ID
Revision date
MeSH terms
  • Bladder Cancer
  • Recurrence
  • Disease Progression
  • Urology
  • Carcinoma in Situ
  • Model type
    Custom model (Conditional)
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    A combined analysis was carried out of individual patient data from 2596 superficial bladder cancer patients included in seven European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 2596

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Intravesical treatment No 561
    Yes 2035
    Age (years) ≤60 859
    61-70 890
    71-80 690
    >80 118
    Unknown 39
    Gender Male 2044
    Female 515
    Unknown 37
    Prior treatment No 2358
    Yes 187
    Unknown 51
    Prior recurrence rate Primary 1405
    Recurrent, ≤1 rec/yr 505
    Recurrent, >1 rec/yr 645
    Unknown 41
    No. of tumors 1 1465
    2-7 836
    ≥8 255
    Unknown 40
    T category Ta 1451
    T1 1108
    Unknown 37
    Carcinoma in situ No 2440
    Yes 113
    Unknown 43
    Grade G1 1121
    G2 1139
    G3 271
    Unknown 65
    T1 G3 No 2361
    Yes, no CIS 172
    Yes, with CIS 22
    Unknown 41
    Recurrence at 3 months No 2070
    Yes 313
    Unknown 213
    Recurrence No 1356
    Yes 1240
    Progression No 2317
    Yes 279
    Survival Alive 1743
    Dead 853
    Cause of death Alive 1743
    Malignant disease 262
    Other 461
    Missing 130
    EORTC risk tables: Predicting recurrence and progression in stage Ta T1 bladder cancer patients. (1yr Progression)
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
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    Estimated 1 year progression probability:

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    Estimated 1 year progression probability: %

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    With these probabilities, the urologist can discuss the different options with the patient to determine the most appropriate treatment and frequency of follow-up.

    It should be noted that external validations of the EORTC tables were not always very good. The external validation in non-muscle-invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma patients by Xylinas et al. showed poor discrimination with C-statistics between 0.597 - 0.662 for the EORTC risk tables. 

    Still, the tables are recommended in the EAU guidelines on Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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