Dynamic prediction of time to wound healing at routine wound care visits - Evidencio
Dynamic prediction of time to wound healing at routine wound care visits

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a model to dynamically predict time to wound healing at subsequent routine wound care visits.

A dynamic prediction model was developed in a cohort of 92,098 wound care visits, corresponding to 14,248 wounds and 7,221 patients that were treated by nurse practitioners in The Netherlands between 2017-2022. Potential predictors were selected based on literature, expert opinion, and availability in the routine care setting. To assess performance for future wound care visits, the model was validated in a new cohort of wounds visited in early 2023.

At external validation, discriminative performance of our developed model was comparable to internal validation (c-statistic = 0.70 [95% CI 0.69, 0.71]) and the model remained well-calibrated.

The developed model can potentially contribute to patient satisfaction and reduce uncertainty around wound healing times when implemented in daily practice.

Note that the corresponding research manuscript is currently under review (minor revisions) and will be linked as soon as possible.

Research authors: Doranne Thomassen, Stella F. Amesz, Niels P. Stol, Saskia le Cessie, Ewout W. Steyerberg
Version: 1.1
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The predicted remaining time until wound closure for this wound is days.

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This number is an estimation of the number of days it will take for the wound to heal from now on, assuming that the wound is treated as usual and in a situation where all wounds are treated until closure. Other events may occur before wound closure that prevent the wound treatment from being completed. Please note that the predicted healing time is an average number and individual wound healing times will vary (R-squared of the model is 25%).

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This algorithm is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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