A prediction model for underestimation of invasive breast cancer for patients with a biopsy diagnosis of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS)
This model calculates the predicted risk for underestimation of invasive breast cancer after a DCIS diagnosis by biopsy. The model uses pre-operatively known risk factors: the detection mode, the biopsy DCIS grade, palpability of the tumour, the BI-RADS score and the presence of a histologic suspected invasive component.
Research authors: Claudia J.C. Meurs, Joost van Rosmalen, Marian B.E. Menke-Pluijmers, Bert P.M. ter Braak, Linda de Munck, Sabine Siesling, Pieter J. Westenend
  • Oncology
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Predicted risk:

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Overall information regarding the model:
The model was based on 2,892 cases of DCIS and 589 events of underestimated invasive breast cancer. The predicted risks in our study ranged from 9.5% to 80.2%, the mean was 20.6% and the median was 14.7%. The c-index was 0.668 and it was 0.661 after correction for optimism by bootstrapping. In this study the sensitivity was the rate of underestimates that was correctly predicted as high-risk and 1-specificity was the rate of DCIS at excision that was falsely predicted as high-risk. The model has not been validated externally.

How to use the model:
The model can be used to calculate the individual risk of underestimation based on routinely available pre-operatively known risk factors

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Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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