Risk of developing gestational diabetes
This prediction model calculates the risk of a pregnant woman developing gestational diabetes. The prediction model is applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.

Background information
The prediction model was developed and validated in Australia by Teede et al (see 'study' and 'references'). Subsequently, the model was externally validated by Lamain et al. (see references) in a prospective Dutch cohort. Currently, the implementation of the prediction model is being evaluated as part of the RESPECT 2 study. For the RESPECT 2 study, the prediction has been updated with a random glucose and a refitted version is used based on the Dutch cohort. The cut-off value is adjusted in such a way that the number of high risk pregnant women is equal to the number of pregnant women that qualify for an oral glucose tolerance test according to the Dutch society of obstetrics and gynaecology (NVOG) criteria. The expectation is that more pregnant women with gestational diabetes will be detected. The inclusion period of the RESPECT 2 study has been closed. The results of the RESPECT 2 study are expected by the end of 2019.
Research authors: Helena J. Teede, Cheryce L. Harrison, Wan T. Teh, Eldho Paul, Carolyn A. Allan, Marije Lamain - de Ruiter, Anneke Kwee, Christiana A. Naaktgeboren, Inge de Groot, Inge M. Evers, Floris Groenendaal, Yolanda R. Hering, Anjoke J.M. Huisjes, Cornel Kirpestein, Wilma M. Monincx, Jacqueline E. Siljee, Annewil Van ’t Zelfde, Charlotte M. van Oirschot, Simone A. Vankan-Buitelaar, Mariska A.A.W. Vonk, Therese A. Wiegers, Joost J. Zwart, Arie Franx, Karel G.M. Moons, Maria P.H. Koster
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★★★★
Model author
Model ID
1095
Version
1.43
Revision date
2020-03-25
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Gestational Diabetes Mellitus
  • Clinical Prediction Rule
  • Pregnancy, First Trimester
  • Model type
    Custom model (Calculation)
    Status
    public
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    Formula

    Additional information

    This prediction model calculates the risk of a pregnant woman developing gestational diabetes. The prediction model is applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.

    Background information
    The prediction model was developed and validated in Australia by Teede et al (see 'study' and 'references'). Subsequently, the model was externally validated by Lamain et al. (see references) in a prospective Dutch cohort. Currently, the implementation of the prediction model is being evaluated as part of the RESPECT 2 study. For the RESPECT 2 study, the prediction has been updated with a random glucose and a refitted version is used based on the Dutch cohort. The cut-off value is adjusted in such a way that the number of high risk pregnant women is equal to the number of pregnant women that qualify for an oral glucose tolerance test according to the Dutch society of obstetrics and gynaecology (NVOG) criteria. The expectation is that more pregnant women with gestational diabetes will be detected. The inclusion period of the RESPECT 2 study has been closed. The results of the RESPECT 2 study are expected by the end of 2019.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 4276
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Age (in years) <25 396
    25 - 29 853
    30 - 34 908
    35 - 39 568
    >= 40 155
    Body mass index (kg/m2)* *unavailable for n=451 < 20.0 331
    20.0 – 24.9 1129
    25.0 – 26.9 279
    27.0 – 29.9 266
    30.0 – 34.9 193
    ≥ 35.0 231
    Ethnicity** ** unavailable for n=7 Anglo-Australian 1234
    Polynesian 50
    Mainland SE Asian 295
    Maritime SE Asian 117
    Chinese Asian 189
    Southern Asian 341
    African 135
    Other 512
    Positive family history for diabetes No 1735
    Yes 1145
    History of gestational diabetes No 2826
    Yes 54
    Risk of developing gestational diabetes
    V-1.43-1095.20.03.25
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
    Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

    The risk for gestational diabetes is:
    ...
    %

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    Result
    Note
    Notes are only visible in the result download and will not be saved by Evidencio

    The risk for gestational diabetes is: %

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    In the original development, the model achieved a c-index of 0,703 on internal validation. This means that a random patient with diabetes gravidarum has a 70.3% chance of getting a higher score than a random patient without diabetes gravidarum. On external validation, a higher c-index of 0.77 was demonstrated.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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