Preoperative risk score of anastomotic failure
Anastomotic leak and its sequelae are dreaded complications following gastrointestinal surgery. Transanal Total Mesorectal Excision (TaTME) is a recent technique for rectal resection, which includes novel anastomotic techniques.
Research authors: Marta Penna, Roel Hompes, Steve Arnold, Greg Wynn, Ralph Austin, Janindra Warusavitarne, Bredan Moran, George B. Hanna, Neil J. Mortensen, Paris P. Tekkis
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
Model author
Model ID
Revision date
MeSH terms
  • Anastomotic Leak
  • Colorectal Surgery
  • Model type
    Custom model (Conditional)
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Cases recorded on the international TaTME registry between July 2014 and December 2016 by 107 surgical centers in 29 different countries were analyzed.

    The b coefficients (log odds ratios) derived from the multivariate analysis were used as weights in the derivation of the anastomotic failure observed risk score.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 1594
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    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Age 63.7 12.4 years
    BMI 26.3 4.4 kg/m2

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    ASA score I + II 1271
    III + IV 303
    Missing 20
    Smoker Smoker 230
    Nonsmoker 1364
    Presence of comorbidities Diabetes Mellitus 178
    Ischemic heart disease 222
    Active inflammatory bowel disease 30
    Steroid use at the time of surgery 16
    Preoperative MRI staging ≥mrT3 930
    mrN+ 764
    TRG response post neoadjuvant therapy mrTRG 1 and 2 (no or small residual tumor) 446
    mrTRG 3 (mixed fibrosis and tumor) 220
    mrTRG 4 and 5 (mainly or only tumor) 192
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    The predicted risk of anastomotic failure is:

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    The predicted risk of anastomotic failure is: %

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    The risk factors and the preoperative observed risk scoring reported in this study can aid the perioperative planning for patients undergoing TaTME. The observed risk score does however require validation which is planned on an external patient cohort in the future.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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