Predicting falls in people with parkinson's disease using three simple clinical tests
The 3-step falls prediction model includes history of falls, history of freezing of gait and comfortable gait speed <1.1 m/s. 

The prediction model is suitable for patients aged above 40 years that are able to walk independently with or without aid. 

This model shouldn't be used in patients with cognitive impairement (reflected by Mini-mental state examination score < 24) or suffered from any unstable cardiovascular, orthopedic, or neurologic conditions that would intefere with the saftey of the assessment and/or interpretation of results. 
Research authors: Serene S. Paul, Colleen G. Canning, Catherine Sherrington, Stephen R. Lord, Jacqueline C. T. Close, Victor S.C. Fung
Details Custom formula Study characteristics Files & References
Model author
Model ID
Revision date
MeSH terms
  • Parkinson Disease
  • Gait
  • Falls
  • Accidental Falls
  • Model type
    Custom model (Conditional)
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Potential predictor variables (falls history, disease severity, cognition, leg muscle strength, balance, mobility,
    freezing of gait [FOG], and fear of falling) were collected for 205 community-dwelling people with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months using monthly falls diaries. In total, 125 participants (59%) fell during follow-
    up. A model that included a history of falls, FOG, impaired postural sway, gait speed, sit-to-stand, standing balance
    with narrow base of support, and coordinated stability had high discrimination in identifying fallers.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 205
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    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Hoehn and Yahr stage 2.6 0.6 Stage

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Fell at least once during 6-months follow-up No 85
    Yes 120

    Risk of falling in the next 6 months is:

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    Risk of falling in the next 6 months is: %

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    The model was shown to accurately discriminate between high and low risk patients on external validation. 

    The 3-step model helps clinicians to identify patients with parkinsons disease who are at high risk of falling and anables the timely delivery of preventive and minimization strategies. 

    Bear in mind that multiple other risk factors influence the risk of falling other than the three parameters in the current model. 

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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