Predicting depression severity in adults with depressive symptoms (Model 1)
This model was developed to predict future depression severity in primary care patients. The model is brief and easily administered in a busy primary care setting. 

Research authors: Patty Chondros, Sandra Davidson, Rory Wolfe, Gail Gilchrist, Christopher Dowrick, Frances Griffiths, Kelsey Hegarty, Helen Herrman, Jane Gunn
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
Model author
Model ID
Revision date
MeSH terms
  • Depression
  • Depressive Symptom
  • Model type
    Linear model (Calculation)
    No Formula defined yet
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Patient-reported data from the diamond study, a prospective cohort of 593 primary care patients with depressive symptoms attending 30 Australian general practices. Participants responded affirmatively to at least one of the first two PHQ-9 items. Twenty predictors were pre-selected by expert consensus based on reliability, ease of administration, likely patient acceptability, and international applicability. Multivariable mixed effects linear regression was used to build the model.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 593
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    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Age 47.7 12.9 years

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Current marital status Never married/single 138
    Widowed/divorced/separated 178
    Married 272
    Live alone No 459
    Yes 132
    Born in Australia No 97
    Yes 494
    English first language No 25
    Yes 567
    Highest education level reached Less than high school education 237
    Completed high school 93
    Certificate/diploma 144
    Bachelor degree or higher 118
    Health care card No 459
    Yes 117
    Employment status Employed/student 348
    Not employed/not in paid employment 145
    Unable to work 98
    Hazardous drinking in the past 12 months No 455
    Yes 134
    Smoker Current 210
    Former/Non 380
    Ever depressed and ever had little interest in doing things for greater than 2 weeks No 127
    Yes 464
    Depression in past 12 months No 241
    Yes 352
    Anxiety in the past 12 months No 314
    Yes 279
    PHQ current anxiety Not at all 30
    Several days 311
    More than half these days 246
    Long term illness No 260
    Yes 324
    Self-rated health Excellent 16
    Very good 101
    Good 207
    Fair 194
    Poor 75
    Depression medication in past 12 months No 284
    Yes 305
    Social support/confidant past 4 weeks Not bothered 182
    Bothered a little 220
    Bothered a lot 188
    Negative life event past 4 weeks Not bothered 277
    Bothered a little 155
    Bothered a lot 154
    Managing on available income Easily 61
    Not too bad 171
    Difficult some of the time 223
    Difficult all of the time 113
    Impossible 23
    Compulsion Not at all 250
    Some days 237
    More than half the days 97
    Obsession Not at all 110
    Some days 312
    More than half the days 170
    Ever afraid of partner No 369
    Yes 211
    Child sexual abuse No 402
    Yes 182
    Child physical abuse No 289
    Yes 296
    Depression symptom severity score Minimal/mild (0-9) 215
    Moderate (10-14) 190
    Moderately severe/Severe (15-27) 188
    Predicting depression severity in adults with depressive symptoms (Model 1)
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
    Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

    Related files

    No related files available

    The predicted depressive symptoms score at three months is:

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    Notes are only visible in the result download and will not be saved by Evidencio

    The predicted depressive symptoms score at three months is: Points

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    A higher score is associated with worse prognosis for predicted depressive symptoms over three months. 

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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