Individual risk for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy - multiv - Evidencio
Individual risk for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy - multivariate logistic regression
This model estimates the risk of pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy based on the original predictor coefficients.
Research authors: Callery MP, Pratt WB, Kent TS, Chaikof EL, Vollmer CM Jr.
Version: 1.18
  • Public
  • Oncology
  • {{ modelType }}
  • Details
  • Validate algorithm
  • Save input
  • Load input
Display
Units

{{ section.title }}

{{ section.description }}

Calculate the result

Set more parameters to perform the calculation

Calculated risk for postoperative pancreatic fistula:

{{ resultSubheader }}
{{ $t('download_result_availability') }}
{{ chart.title }}
Result interval {{ additionalResult.min }} to {{ additionalResult.max }}

Conditional information

 

Important note:
This model was newly developed based on the original predictor coefficients as reported by Callery et al (2013). Before application in a clinical setting, this model needs to be validated in independent datasets.  

Original study population:
In the modeling group (N=233) of the original study (Callery et al, 2013), clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistulas occurred in 13% of the patients. Independent logistic regression analysis revealed that patients with pancreatic duct diameters measuring 3 mm or smaller (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.22 to 6.35, p = 0.015), or those with ampullary, duodenal, cystic, or islet cell pathology (OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.36 to 6.54, p = 0.007) were nearly 3 times as likely to develop clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF). Soft pancreatic parenchyma resulted in a 5-fold increase in the likelihood of developing CR-POPF (OR 5.02, 95% CI 1.97 to 12.81, p < 0.001). Intraoperative blood loss in excess of 1,000 mL had the most significant impact, predisposing patients to nearly a 6-fold increase in fistula development (OR 5.60, 95% CI 1.65 to 18.98, p = 0.006).  

Reference:
  1. Callery MP, Pratt WB, Kent TS, Chaikof EL, Vollmer CM. A prospectively validated risk score accurately predicts pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy. J Am Coll Surg. 2013; 216(1):1–14.   

{{ file.classification }}
PRO
Note
Notes are only visible in the result download and will not be saved by Evidencio

This algorithm is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

Underlying algorithms Part of
Comments
Comment
Please enter a comment
Comments are visible to anyone

Algorithm feedback

No feedback yet 1 Comment {{ model.comments.length }} Comments
On {{ comment.created_at }} {{ comment.user.username }} a no longer registered author wrote:
{{ comment.content }}
logo

Please sign in to enable Evidencio print features

In order to use the Evidencio print features, you need to be logged in.
If you don't have an Evidencio Community Account you can create your free personal account at:

https://www.evidencio.com/registration

Printed results - Examples {{ new Date().toLocaleString() }}

Evidencio Community Account Benefits

With an Evidencio Community account you can:

  • Create and publish your own prediction algorithms.
  • Share your prediction algorithms with your colleagues, research group, organization or the world.
  • Review and provide feedback on algorithms that have been shared with you.
  • Validate your algorithms and validate algorithms from other users.
  • Find algorithms based on Title, Keyword, Author, Institute, or MeSH classification.
  • Use and save prediction algorithms and their data.
  • Use patient specific protocols and guidelines based on sequential algorithms and decision trees.
  • Stay up-to-date with new algorithms in your field as they are published.
  • Create your own lists of favorite algorithms and topics.

A personal Evidencio account is free, with no strings attached!
Join us and help create clarity, transparency, and efficiency in the creation, validation, and use of medical prediction algorithms.

Disclaimer: Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement.
Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy | Disclaimer | Contact | Refuse cookies |
Evidencio v3.38 © 2015 - 2025 Evidencio. All Rights Reserved