Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for predicting combined cardiovascular events
The Essen stroke risk score predicts the 1-year risk of combined cardiovascular events on a 10-point scale.
Research authors: CAPRIE steering committee.
Details Custom formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★★
Model author
Model ID
1536
Version
1.5
Revision date
2018-09-08
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Clinical Prediction Rule
  • Cardiovascular Disease
  • Model type
    Custom model (Conditional)
    Status
    public
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    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    The Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) was derived from the data subset of 6341 patients with ischemic stroke in the large-scale Clopidogrel versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischemic Events (CAPRIE) trial.1,2

    Referenties:
    1. CAPRIE Steering Committee. A randomised, blinded, trial of Clopidogrel versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischaemic Events (CAPRIE). Lancet.1996;348:1329-1339.
    2. Diener HC, Ringleb PA, Savi P. Clopidogrel for the secondary prevention of stroke. Exp Opin Pharmacother. 2005;6:755-764.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 6341
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Age 64.6 11.1 years

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Gender Male 4084
    Female 2257
    Race Caucasian 5770
    Other 571
    Previous ischaemic stroke Yes 1141
    No 5200
    Diabetes mellitus Yes 1617
    No 4724
    Hypertension Yes 4122
    No 2219
    Myocardial infarction Yes 760
    No 5581
    Atrial fibrillation Yes 254
    No 6087
    Current smoker Yes 1395
    No 4946
    Ex smoker Yes 2758
    No 3583

    1-year risk of combined cardiovascular events:
    ...
    %

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    Result
    Note
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    1-year risk of combined cardiovascular events: %

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    This model calculates the 1-year risk of combined cardiovascular events on a 10-point scale. It was derived from the data subset of 6341 patients with ischemic stroke in the large-scale Clopidogrel versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischemic Events (CAPRIE) trial.1,2

    The model was validated in patients with recent cerebrovascular events using the data set of the European Stroke Prevention Study II (ESPS-2).3,4 In addition, it was externally validated in the large outpatient population of the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry.5

    References:

    1. CAPRIE Steering Committee. A randomised, blinded, trial of Clopidogrel versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischaemic Events (CAPRIE). Lancet.1996;348:1329-1339.
    2. Diener HC, Ringleb PA, Savi P. Clopidogrel for the secondary prevention of stroke. Exp Opin Pharmacother. 2005;6:755-764.
    3. Diener HC, Cunha L, Forbes C, Sivenius J, Smets P, Lowenthal A. European Stroke Prevention Study. 2. Dipyridamole and acetylsalicylic acid in the secondary prevention of stroke. J Neurol Sci. 1996;143:1-13.
    4. Diener HC. Modified-release dipyridamole combined with aspirin for secondary stroke prevention. Aging Health. 2005;1:19-26.
    5. Weimar C, Diener HC, Alberts MJ, et al. The Essen stroke risk score predicts recurrent cardiovascular events: a validation within the Reduction of Atherotrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Stroke. 2009;40(2)350-4.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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