Predicting Mortality in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia and Pneumonia Treated with Antibiotics
The model predicts 14-day mortality in nursing home residents with dementia and pneumonia who are treated with antibiotics. 
Research authors: Simone P. Rauh, Martijn W. Heymans, Tessa van der Maaden, David R. Mehr, Robin L. Kruse, Henrica C.W. de Vet, Jenny T. van der Steen
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
Model author
Model ID
Revision date
MeSH terms
  • Dementia
  • Pneumonia
  • Antibiotics
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    No Formula defined yet
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Data were used from the PneuMonitor study (Netherlands trial register number NTR5071). The PneuMonitor study prospectively included 464 pneumonia episodes in 429 patients in 32 nursing homes between January 2012 and May 2015. The decision whether or not to treat the pneumonia with antibiotics was at the discretion of the physician.

    A total of 380 episodes were eligible for analysis to develop the current prediction model. 


    Study Population

    Total population size: 380
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Age 84.2 7.3 years
    Dementia severity (BANS-S Score) 15.7 4.5 score
    Respiratory rate 25.4 8.0 breaths per minute
    Pulse rate 90.9 17.3 beats per minute

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    14-day mortality Alive 325
    Died 55
    Respiratory difficulty No 172
    Yes 208
    Decreased alertness No 269
    Yes 111
    Fluid intake Sufficient 192
    Insufficient 188
    Eating dependency Independent 78
    Need for assistance 130
    Fully dependent 155
    Pressure sores No 349
    Yes 31
    Undernutrition No 253
    Yes 127
    Undernutrition (Severely) cachectic 88
    Weight loss 47
    BMI <18.5 kg/m2 69
    Dehydration No 268
    Yes 112
    Increase in eating dependency during the 2 weeks before diagnosis No 257
    Yes 123
    Dressing dependency Independent 13
    Need for assistance 169
    Fully dependent 173
    Mobility dependency Independent 117
    Need for assistance 104
    Fully dependent 134
    Bedfast No 351
    Yes 29
    Coughing No 93
    Yes 287
    Aspiration No 330
    Yes 50
    Cardiovascular history No 203
    Yes 177
    COPD No 295
    Yes 85
    Bowel incontinence No 159
    Yes 221
    Predicting Mortality in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia and Pneumonia Treated with Antibiotics
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
    Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

    Related files

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    The estimated 14-day mortality risk is:

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    The model showed good discrimination on internal validation (AUC = 0.80) and calibration remained adequate (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: p = 0.67) 

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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