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The model predicts 14-day mortality in nursing home residents with dementia and pneumonia who are treated with antibiotics.
Research authors: Simone P. Rauh, Martijn W. Heymans, Tessa van der Maaden, David R. Mehr, Robin L. Kruse, Henrica C.W. de Vet, Jenny T. van der Steen
Details
Formula
Study characteristics
Files & References
★★★
Model author
Model ID
1640
Version
1.18
Revision date
2019-05-13
Specialty
MeSH terms
Model type
Logistic regression
(Calculation)
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Additional information
Data were used from the PneuMonitor study (Netherlands trial register number NTR5071). The PneuMonitor study prospectively included 464 pneumonia episodes in 429 patients in 32 nursing homes between January 2012 and May 2015. The decision whether or not to treat the pneumonia with antibiotics was at the discretion of the physician.A total of 380 episodes were eligible for analysis to develop the current prediction model.
Study Population
Total population size: 380Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}
Continuous characteristics
| Name | Mean | SD | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 84.2 | 7.3 | years |
| Dementia severity (BANS-S Score) | 15.7 | 4.5 | score |
| Respiratory rate | 25.4 | 8.0 | breaths per minute |
| Pulse rate | 90.9 | 17.3 | beats per minute |
Categorical characteristics
| Name | Subset / Group | Nr. of patients |
|---|---|---|
| 14-day mortality | Alive | 325 |
| Died | 55 | |
| Respiratory difficulty | No | 172 |
| Yes | 208 | |
| Decreased alertness | No | 269 |
| Yes | 111 | |
| Fluid intake | Sufficient | 192 |
| Insufficient | 188 | |
| Eating dependency | Independent | 78 |
| Need for assistance | 130 | |
| Fully dependent | 155 | |
| Pressure sores | No | 349 |
| Yes | 31 | |
| Undernutrition | No | 253 |
| Yes | 127 | |
| Undernutrition | (Severely) cachectic | 88 |
| Weight loss | 47 | |
| BMI <18.5 kg/m2 | 69 | |
| Dehydration | No | 268 |
| Yes | 112 | |
| Increase in eating dependency during the 2 weeks before diagnosis | No | 257 |
| Yes | 123 | |
| Dressing dependency | Independent | 13 |
| Need for assistance | 169 | |
| Fully dependent | 173 | |
| Mobility dependency | Independent | 117 |
| Need for assistance | 104 | |
| Fully dependent | 134 | |
| Bedfast | No | 351 |
| Yes | 29 | |
| Coughing | No | 93 |
| Yes | 287 | |
| Aspiration | No | 330 |
| Yes | 50 | |
| Cardiovascular history | No | 203 |
| Yes | 177 | |
| COPD | No | 295 |
| Yes | 85 | |
| Bowel incontinence | No | 159 |
| Yes | 221 |
Related files
No related files available
Supporting Publications
| Title or description | Tags |
|---|---|
| Predicting Mortality in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia and Pneumonia Treated with Antibiotics: Validation of a Prediction Model in a More Recent Population | Internal validation Paper Peer review |
The estimated 14-day mortality risk is: ...
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Result
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The estimated 14-day mortality risk is:
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Outcome stratification
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Result interpretation
The model showed good discrimination on internal validation (AUC = 0.80) and calibration remained adequate (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: p = 0.67)
Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.
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Disclaimer: Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement.
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