Predicting Mortality in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia and Pneumonia

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Predicting Mortality in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia and Pneumonia Treated with Antibiotics

The model predicts 14-day mortality in nursing home residents with dementia and pneumonia who are treated with antibiotics.

Research authors: Simone P. Rauh, Martijn W. Heymans, Tessa van der Maaden, David R. Mehr, Robin L. Kruse, Henrica C.W. de Vet, Jenny T. van der Steen

Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References

★★★

Model author

jtvandersteen

Model ID

1640

Version

1.18

Revision date

2019-05-13

Specialty

Geriatrics, Infectious disease, Palliative medicine

MeSH terms

Dementia

Pneumonia

Antibiotics

Model type

Logistic regression ^{(Calculation)}

Status

public

Rating

★ ★ ★

Formula
No Formula defined yet

Condition	Formula

Additional information

Data were used from the PneuMonitor study (Netherlands trial register number NTR5071). The PneuMonitor study prospectively included 464 pneumonia episodes in 429 patients in 32 nursing homes between January 2012 and May 2015. The decision whether or not to treat the pneumonia with antibiotics was at the discretion of the physician.

A total of 380 episodes were eligible for analysis to develop the current prediction model.

Study Population

Total population size: 380

Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}

Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

Continuous characteristics

Name	Mean	SD	Unit
Age	84.2	7.3	years
Dementia severity (BANS-S Score)	15.7	4.5	score
Respiratory rate	25.4	8.0	breaths per minute
Pulse rate	90.9	17.3	beats per minute

Categorical characteristics

Name	Subset / Group	Nr. of patients
14-day mortality	Alive	325
	Died	55
Respiratory difficulty	No	172
	Yes	208
Decreased alertness	No	269
	Yes	111
Fluid intake	Sufficient	192
	Insufficient	188
Eating dependency	Independent	78
	Need for assistance	130
	Fully dependent	155
Pressure sores	No	349
	Yes	31
Undernutrition	No	253
	Yes	127
Undernutrition	(Severely) cachectic	88
	Weight loss	47
	BMI <18.5 kg/m2	69
Dehydration	No	268
	Yes	112
Increase in eating dependency during the 2 weeks before diagnosis	No	257
	Yes	123
Dressing dependency	Independent	13
	Need for assistance	169
	Fully dependent	173
Mobility dependency	Independent	117
	Need for assistance	104
	Fully dependent	134
Bedfast	No	351
	Yes	29
Coughing	No	93
	Yes	287
Aspiration	No	330
	Yes	50
Cardiovascular history	No	203
	Yes	177
COPD	No	295
	Yes	85
Bowel incontinence	No	159
	Yes	221

	Predicting Mortality in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia and Pneumonia Treated with Antibiotics
	V-1.18-1640.19.05.13
	Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
	Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

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Supporting Publications

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The estimated 14-day mortality risk is:
...

Result

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The estimated 14-day mortality risk is:

Outcome stratification

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Result interpretation

The model showed good discrimination on internal validation (AUC = 0.80) and calibration remained adequate (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: p = 0.67)

Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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Disclaimer: Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement.