Predicting Mortality in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia and Pneumonia Treated with Antibiotics
The model predicts 14-day mortality in nursing home residents with dementia and pneumonia who are treated with antibiotics. 
Research authors: Simone P. Rauh, Martijn W. Heymans, Tessa van der Maaden, David R. Mehr, Robin L. Kruse, Henrica C.W. de Vet, Jenny T. van der Steen
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★★
Model author
Model ID
1640
Version
1.18
Revision date
2019-05-13
MeSH terms
  • Dementia
  • Pneumonia
  • Antibiotics
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
    Rating
    Share
    Formula
    No Formula defined yet
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Data were used from the PneuMonitor study (Netherlands trial register number NTR5071). The PneuMonitor study prospectively included 464 pneumonia episodes in 429 patients in 32 nursing homes between January 2012 and May 2015. The decision whether or not to treat the pneumonia with antibiotics was at the discretion of the physician.

    A total of 380 episodes were eligible for analysis to develop the current prediction model. 

     

    Study Population

    Total population size: 380
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Age 84.2 7.3 years
    Dementia severity (BANS-S Score) 15.7 4.5 score
    Respiratory rate 25.4 8.0 breaths per minute
    Pulse rate 90.9 17.3 beats per minute

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    14-day mortality Alive 325
    Died 55
    Respiratory difficulty No 172
    Yes 208
    Decreased alertness No 269
    Yes 111
    Fluid intake Sufficient 192
    Insufficient 188
    Eating dependency Independent 78
    Need for assistance 130
    Fully dependent 155
    Pressure sores No 349
    Yes 31
    Undernutrition No 253
    Yes 127
    Undernutrition (Severely) cachectic 88
    Weight loss 47
    BMI <18.5 kg/m2 69
    Dehydration No 268
    Yes 112
    Increase in eating dependency during the 2 weeks before diagnosis No 257
    Yes 123
    Dressing dependency Independent 13
    Need for assistance 169
    Fully dependent 173
    Mobility dependency Independent 117
    Need for assistance 104
    Fully dependent 134
    Bedfast No 351
    Yes 29
    Coughing No 93
    Yes 287
    Aspiration No 330
    Yes 50
    Cardiovascular history No 203
    Yes 177
    COPD No 295
    Yes 85
    Bowel incontinence No 159
    Yes 221

    Related files

    No related files available

    The estimated 14-day mortality risk is:
    ...

    {{ resultSubheader }}

    {{ model.survival.PITTitle }}

    {{ model.survival.YNETitle }}

    Result
    Note
    Notes are only visible in the result download and will not be saved by Evidencio

    The estimated 14-day mortality risk is:

    {{ resultSubheader }}

    Outcome stratification

    Result interval {{ additionalResult.min }} to {{ additionalResult.max }}

    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    The model showed good discrimination on internal validation (AUC = 0.80) and calibration remained adequate (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: p = 0.67) 

    {{ file.classification }}

    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

    Comments
    Rating
    Comment
    Please enter a comment of rating
    Comments are visible to anyone

    Model feedback

    No feedback yet 1 Comment {{ model.comments.length }} Comments
    Not rated | On {{ comment.created_at }} {{ comment.user.username }} a no longer registered author wrote:
    logo

    Please sign in to enable Evidencio print features

    In order to use the Evidencio print features, you need to be logged in.
    If you don't have an Evidencio Community Account you can create your free personal account at:

    https://www.evidencio.com/registration

    Printed results - Examples {{ new Date().toLocaleString() }}


    Evidencio Community Account Benefits


    With an Evidencio Community account you can:

    • Create and publish your own prediction models.
    • Share your prediction models with your colleagues, research group, organization or the world.
    • Review and provide feedback on models that have been shared with you.
    • Validate your models and validate models from other users.
    • Find models based on Title, Keyword, Author, Institute, or MeSH classification.
    • Use and save prediction models and their data.
    • Use patient specific protocols and guidelines based on sequential models and decision trees.
    • Stay up-to-date with new models in your field as they are published.
    • Create your own lists of favorite models and topics.
    A personal Evidencio account is free, with no strings attached! Join us and help create clarity, transparency, and efficiency in the creation, validation, and use of medical prediction models.

    Disclaimer: Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement.