3-year survival after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer: updated amsterdam model
This prediction model for 3-year survival after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer was developed in 2015 in Amsterdam UMC (location AMC) and externally validated in 2019 in 3081 patients from 8 countries (USA, UK, Germany, Italy, Sweden, the Netherlands, Korea, Australia).

PubMed ID 31924432
Research authors: van Roessel, S, Strijker, M, Steyerberg, EW, ..., Besselink, MG
Version: 1.17
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Estimated 3-years survival after pancreatoduodenectomy: %

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How this model should be used: 
This validated model calculates 3-year survival after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer.

Model performance:
Predictions of 3-year OS were fairly similar to observed OS with a calibration slope of 0.72. Statistical updating of the model resulted in an increase of the C-statistic from 0.63 to 0.65 (95% CI 0.64-0.65), ranging from 0.62 to 0.67 across different countries. The area under the curve for the prediction of 3-year OS was 0.71 after updating. Median OS was 36, 25 and 15 months for the low, intermediate and high risk group, respectively (P<0.001).

van Roessel S, Strijker M, Steyerberg EW, et al. International validation and update of the Amsterdam model for prediction of survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer. European Journal of Surgical Oncology: the Journal of the European Society of Surgical Oncology and the British Association of Surgical Oncology. 2019.

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This model is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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