5-year conditional survival after resection of pancreatic cancer
This prediction model was developed in a Dutch nationwide cohort of 3,082 patients and calculates the 5-year conditional survival after resection of pancreatic cancer.

Latenstein et al. Annals of Surgical Oncology 2020
Research authors: Anouk Latenstein, Stijn van Roessel, Lydia G.M. van der Geest, Bert A. Bonsing, Cornelis H.C. Dejong, Bas Groot Koerkamp, Ignace H.J.T. de Hingh, Marjolein Y.V. Homs, Joost M. Klaase, Valery Lemmens, I. Quintus Molenaar, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Martijn W.J. Stommel, Olivier R. Busch, Casper H.J. van Eijck, Hanneke W.M. van Laarhoven, Johanna W. Wilmink, Marc Besselink, for the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Group
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MeSH terms
  • Pancreatic Cancer
  • Model type
    R-Script model (Calculation)
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    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed.

    This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005–2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0–5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. A prediction model was constructed.

    Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17–18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics.

    This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers.

    Latenstein et al. Annals of Surgical Oncology 2020

    Study Population

    Total population size: 3082
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    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name LL Q1 Median Q3 UL Unit
    Age 60 67 73 years

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Type of surgery Pancreatoduodenectomy 2686
    Distal pancreatectomy 333
    Total pancreatectomy 47
    Other 16
    5-year conditional survival after resection of pancreatic cancer
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
    Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands
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    Probability of survival 5-years after pancreatic resection is: % Given the number of years already survived

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    This online calculator based on national data may be useful for counselling patients during follow-up. External validation of the nomogram and conditional survival estimates in other cohorts of patients with pancreatic cancer would be recommended.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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