3-year survival in patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma
Note: The paper describing the development and validation of the prediction model is currently undergoing peer-review. 
Research authors: AL Moekotte, S van Roessel
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
Model author
Model ID
1807
Version
1.11
Revision date
2019-10-30
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Ampulla of Vater
  • Pancreatoduodenectomy
  • Survival
  • Model type
    Cox regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
    Rating
    No rating criteria met
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    Additional information

    An international multicenter cohort study was conducted, including patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for AAC (January 2006-December 2017). A derivation and validation cohort were separately collected from different centers. Predictors were selected from the derivation cohort using a LASSO Cox proportional hazards model. A nomogram was created based on shrunk coefficients. Model performance was assessed in the derivation cohort and subsequently in the validation cohort, by calibration plots and Uno’s C-statistic.

    Overall, 1,007 patients were available for development of the model. For external validation, 462 patients were used. Predictors in the final Cox model included age, resection margin, tumor differentiation, pathological T stage and N stage (8th AJCC edition).

    Study Population

    Total population size: 1007
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    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name LL Q1 Median Q3 UL Unit
    Age 60 67 73 years
    Tumor size 15 20 30 millimeter
    Lymph node yield 13 19 27 number

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Margin status R0 805
    R1 202
    T stage according to AJCC 8th edition T1/2 431
    T3/4 570
    N stage according to AJCC 8th edition N0 378
    N1 264
    N2 265
    Perineural invasion Present 400
    Absent 607
    Lymphovascular invasion Present 587
    Absent 420
    Tumor differentiation Well 76
    Moderately 557
    Poorly/undifferentiated 360
    Histopathologic subtype Intestinal 233
    Pancreaticobiliary 342
    Mixed 52

    Related files

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    Supporting Publications

    No supporting publications available

    Estimated 3-year survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary cancer
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    Result
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    Estimated 3-year survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary cancer

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    This model calculates 3-year overall survival in patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma. This model needs to be externally validated in independent cohorts.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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