An early risk prediction tool for gestational diabetes (point score)
The current model is intended to be used at the first-trimester of the pregnancy. This risk prediction tool identifies women at high risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM).
Research authors: Helena J. Teede, Cheryce L. Harrison, Wan T. Teh, Eldho Paul, Carolyn A. Allan
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★★★
Model author
Model ID
2102
Version
1.16
Revision date
2020-03-27
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Gestational Diabetes Mellitus
  • Gestational Diabetes
  • Model type
    Linear model (Calculation)
    Status
    public
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    Formula
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    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    The study population comprised all pregnant women (n = 4276) who delivered at Monash Medical Centre, a tertiary obstetric service within Southern Health Melbourne, Australia, servicing a catchment area of over 216,000 Victorian residents. Data on all singleton pregnancies for the year of 2007 to June 2008 were routinely collected in early pregnancy (12–15 weeks gestation). 

    Briefly, diagnosis of GDM involved a twostep process whereby women with a positive glucose challenge screen result (1-h venous plasma glucose level ≥8.0 mmol ⁄ L) proceeded to a 2-h 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). GDM was diagnosed in the presence of either a fasting plasma glucose level of ≥5.5 mmol ⁄L or a 2-h level of ≥8.0 mmol ⁄ L

    Women in this database were divided into two groups: a derivation group (2880 women, delivered 2007) and a
    validation group (1396 women, delivered between January and June 2008). The displayed study characteristics concern the characteristics of the derivation group. 

    The validation data set comprised 1396 pregnancies. Of these, 106 women (7.6%) had GDM detected on universal screening.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 2880
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Age <25 396
    25 - 29 853
    30 - 34 908
    35 - 39 568
    ≥40 155
    Body mass index (unavailable for n = 451) <20.0 331
    20.0 - 24.9 1129
    25.0 - 26.9 279
    27.0 - 29.9 266
    30.0 - 34.9 193
    ≥35.0 231
    Ethnicity (unavailable for n = 7) Anglo-Australian 1234
    Polynesian 50
    Mainland SE Asian 295
    Maritime SE Asian 117
    Chinese Asian 189
    Southern Asian 341
    Other 512
    Family history of diabetes No 1735
    Yes 1145
    Past history of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus No 2826
    Yes 54
    Poor obstetric outcome No 2777
    Yes 103

    Related files

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    Supporting Publications

    The risk factor score is:
    ...
    points

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    Result
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    The risk factor score is: points

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    The point score was derived from rounded multivariable logisitic regression coefficients. Temporal external validation of the model resulted in a c index of 0.703. Indicating a 70.3% probability that a randomly selected patient with GDM will receive a higher risk score than a randomly selected patient without GDM.

     

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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