INFLUENCE 2.0: Risk of Locoregional recurrence, secondary contralateral tumors and distant metastasis in breast cancer
INFLUENCE 2.0 is a flexible model to predict time-dependent individual risks of LRR, SP and DM at a 5-year scale; it can support clinical decision-making regarding personalized follow-up strategies for curatively treated non-metastatic breast cancer patients.  
Research authors: Vinzenz Völkel, Tom A. Hueting, Teresa Draeger, Marissa C. van Maaren, Luc J.A. Strobbe, Marjanka K. Schmidt, Gabe S. Sonke, Marjan van Hezewijk, Catharina G.M. Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Sabine Siesling
Version: 2.0
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The calculated results are based on models that have been developed using data of over 13000 patients who have been treated for breast cancer in the Netherlands.

The performance of the models have been evaluated on discrimination and calibration using 200 bootstrap samples. The C-index for locoregional recurrence, secondary primary contralateral breast cancer, and distant metastasis were 0.75, 0.67, and 0.77 respectively. 

For calibration, all three models showed high levels of agreement between predicted and observed probabilities and <1% absolute differences on average. 

In the data used to develop the model, the following event rates were observed:

  • Locoregional recurrence n = 385 (2.8%)
  • Secondary Primary Contralateral breast cancer n = 411 (3.0%)
  • Distant metastasis n = 848 (6.3%)
  • No event n = 11839 (87.7%)

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