ARISE Prediction Models for Aneurysmal Rebleeding after Aneurysmal Subarach - Evidencio
ARISE Prediction Models for Aneurysmal Rebleeding after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

How this model should be used

The presented model is used to predict the preinterventional risk of aneurysmal rebleeding within 24 and 72 hours after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. The prediction score has been developed based on multinational cohort data from two prospective hospital registries and three retrospective observational studies in Europe (n = 2075, of whom 269 suffered preinterventional rebleeding; DOI: 10.1227/neu.0000000000002045). The score has been externally validated using data from two European hospital registries (n = 1467, of whom 143 suffered preinterventional rebleeding; DOI: 10.1227/neu.0000000000003275).

 

Context information

Because this validation study used observational data, it is difficult to rule out selection- and information bias. Although the DCA suggests clinical usefulness, the real scientific test of how the ARISE models affect decision-making in daily clinical patient care is an impact study. This prediction tool should be used exclusively by health care professionals as a complementary tool to estimate the preinterventional rebleeding risk. Using it, you should understand and agree that the authors are not responsible or liable for any claim, loss, or damage resulting from its use. While we try to keep the model as accurate as possible, we disclaim any warranty concerning its accuracy, timeliness, and completeness, and any other warranty, express or implied, including warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

 

Model performance

The ARISE base model showed promise at external validation. The ARISE base model has good discriminative ability for the prediction of a preinterventional rebleed in patients suffering from aSAH (c-statistic >0.70), although updating the baseline hazard for each center was needed to obtain adequate model calibration. After local validation and adjustment of the baseline hazard if required, the ARISE base model may well be used for risk prediction in patients with aSAH facilitating future endeavors to minimize the risk of preinterventional rebleeding.

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Version: 2.0
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