Early prediction of chronic post surgical pain (CPSP) in adults - Evidencio
Early prediction of chronic post surgical pain (CPSP) in adults
Chronic post surgical pain (CPSP) is pain developed after a surgical procedure and persists at least three months. CPSP leads to significant disease burden and reduced quality of life. Difficulty of treating the transitioned pain has contributed to opioid analgesic overuse in some countries introducing an increased risk of misuse and abuse. Early identification of patients at risk of developing CPSP is an essential step in reducing pain chronification.
Research authors: Marjelle E. C. van Driel, Jacqueline F. M. van Dijk, Sara J. Baart, Winfried Meissner, Frank J. P. M. Huygen, Mienke Rijsdijk
Version: 1.34
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The predicted probability for CPSP within 3 months is .

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The outcome Chronic Post Surgical Pain (CPSP) was defined as pain with a Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) of 4 or higher 3 months after surgery. 


The model predicting the risk on postoperative day 1 showed an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 - 0.77) and adequate calibration on both internal and external validation

The model predicting the risk on postoperative day 14 showed an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76 - 0.87) and adequate calibration on both internal and external validation

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This algorithm is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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