Probability of ulcer recurrence in diabetic patients
Recurrence of plantar foot ulcers is a common and major problem in diabetes but not well understood. This model calculates the probability of ulcer recurrence in diabetic patients.
Research authors: Waaijman R, de Haart M, Arts MLJ, Wever D, Verlouw AJW, Nollet F, Bus SA.
Version: 1.27
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Calculated risk for ulcer recurrence

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Model performance:
In the original study popuation (N=171), a total of 71 (41,5%) patients had a recurrent ulcer. The optimal probability cutoff point of P = 0.275 yielded an 81% sensitivity (correctly classifying the group with ulcer recurrence) and 50% specificity (correctly classifying the group without ulcer recurrence) for this model.

Model development:
This model was based on univariate and multivariate multilevel logistic regression analysis of 71 ulcer recurrences. In the multivariate analysis, a higher minor lesion index (odds ratio [OR] 9.06 [95%CI 2.98–27.57]), longer cumulative duration of past foot ulcers (1.03 [1.00–1.06]), and more day-to-day variation in stridecount (0.93 [0.89–0.99]) remained independently significantly related to ulcer recurrence.

Source:
Waaijman R, de Haart M, Arts ML, Wever D, Verlouw AJ, Nollet F, Bus SA. Risk factors for plantar foot ulcer recurrence in neuropathic diabetic patients. Diabetes Care. 2014;37(6):1697-1705.

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This model is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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