Probability of ongoing pregnancy after in vitro fertilization (IVF)- embryo transfer (ET).
This model model is intended to estimate the probability of ongoing pregnancy after in vitro fertilization (IVF)-embryo transfer (ET) using age of women and serum biomarkers (c-index: 0.91). This model needs further validation to improve individualized prediction of ongoing pregnancy.

Research authors: Kim JH, Jee BC, Suh CS, Kim SH.
Version: 1.5
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  • Gynaecology
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Probability of ongoing pregnancy in IVF-ET cycles:

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This model was build to predict ongoing pregnancy in IVF cycles using age of women and serum HCG and progesterone levels measured at 14 days post-OPU. The nomogram may provide a better discrimination than HCG alone and give help to individualized prediction of ongoing pregnancy. For the generalized use of this nomogram, further validation by large data sets is required. We believe that this nomogram can be useful in counseling IVF patients.

Model performance:
With a combination of serum HCG, progesterone and age of woman, the predictive accuracy of the model was: AUC 0.912 (95% CI 0.815–1.000), sensitivity 89.3%, specificity 80.0%, PPV 89.3%, NPV 80.0%.
 
Note: like the age of woman, supraphysiologically high levels of progesterone appears to be related to poor maintenance of viable gestational sac. On the contrary, a relatively low level of progesterone might also contribute to poor pregnancy results, thus increment of progesterone supplementation should be considered in the next IVF cycle in these women. Further prospective studies are needed to elucidate the effect of progesterone increment on improved pregnancy rate in these women.



Source:
Kim JH, Jee BC, Suh CS, Kim SH. Nomogram to predict ongoing pregnancy using age of women and serum biomarkers after in vitro fertilization cycles. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol. 2014;172:65-69.

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This model is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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