MSKCC Nomogram: Probability of organ-confined disease in prostate cancer pa - Evidencio
MSKCC Nomogram: Probability of organ-confined disease in prostate cancer patients (includes biopsy cores)
Calculates the probability that the cancer will be found to be confined to the prostate gland when the prostate is removed (c-index: 0.71). This model includes biopsy cores. 

Disqualifying treatments: This model does not apply to patients who underwent preoperative hormone- or radiation therapy for prostate cancer. 
Research authors: Source: Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (US)
Version: 2.8
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  • Oncology
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Probability of organ-confined disease:

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How this model should be used:
This model calculates the probability that the cancer will be found to be confined to the prostate gland when the prostate is removed. This model does not apply to patients who underwent preoperative hormone- or radiation therapy for prostate cancer. 

Result interpretation: 
A low probability of organ-confined disease does not necessarily mean that surgery cannot cure the cancer. About 50 percent of patients who do not have organ-confined cancer have long-term freedom from recurrence following surgery. The probability of having organ-confined prostate cancer is not equal to the probability that surgery will provide long-term freedom from recurrence, because the cancer does not have to be organ confined to be successfully treated with surgery.

Model performance: 
A validation was performed to assess the discriminative power of the model. On the website of the MSKCC, a c-index of 0.71 is reported. No specific details regarding the validation process are disclosed.

Alternative models: 
For cases in which the number of cores taken at biopsy is unknown, an alternative prediction model that does not require this information is available. This alternative model provides slightly less refined predictions (c-index 0.67 versus 0.71, respectively).


Source: Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.

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This algorithm is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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