MSKCC Nomogram: Probability of organ-confined disease in prostate cancer patients (includes biopsy cores)
Calculates the probability that the cancer will be found to be confined to the prostate gland when the prostate is removed (c-index: 0.71). This model includes biopsy cores. 

Disqualifying treatments: This model does not apply to patients who underwent preoperative hormone- or radiation therapy for prostate cancer. 
Research authors: Source: Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (US)
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
Model author
Model ID
437
Version
2.8
Revision date
2018-03-12
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Clinical Prediction Rule
  • Prostate Cancer
  • Treatment
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
    Rating
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    Formula
    No Formula defined yet
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Study population:
    This model was based on a large patient cohort from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), United States. Using a dynamic statistical formula, this model draws on data from more than 5,000 prostate cancer patients treated at MSKCC. 

    Additional study characteristics: 
    No specific details regarding the study population available. 
     

    Study Population

    Total population size: 5359
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Additional characteristics

    No additional characteristics defined
    MSKCC Nomogram: Probability of organ-confined disease in prostate cancer patients (includes biopsy cores)
    V-2.8-437.18.03.12
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
    Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

    Related files

    Supporting Publications

    Probability of organ-confined disease:
    ...

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    Result
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    Probability of organ-confined disease:

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    How this model should be used:
    This model calculates the probability that the cancer will be found to be confined to the prostate gland when the prostate is removed. This model does not apply to patients who underwent preoperative hormone- or radiation therapy for prostate cancer. 

    Result interpretation: 
    A low probability of organ-confined disease does not necessarily mean that surgery cannot cure the cancer. About 50 percent of patients who do not have organ-confined cancer have long-term freedom from recurrence following surgery. The probability of having organ-confined prostate cancer is not equal to the probability that surgery will provide long-term freedom from recurrence, because the cancer does not have to be organ confined to be successfully treated with surgery.

    Model performance: 
    A validation was performed to assess the discriminative power of the model. On the website of the MSKCC, a c-index of 0.71 is reported. No specific details regarding the validation process are disclosed.

    Alternative models: 
    For cases in which the number of cores taken at biopsy is unknown, an alternative prediction model that does not require this information is available. This alternative model provides slightly less refined predictions (c-index 0.67 versus 0.71, respectively).


    Source: Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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