Risk of radiographic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years:
This clinical prediction model calculates the risk of developing radiographic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years using 6 clinical variables (c-index: 0.60-0.74).
Research authors: Zhang W, McWilliams DF, Ingham SL, Doherty SA, Muthuri S, Muir KR, Doherty M.
Version: 1.12
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  • Orthopaedics
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Risk of radiographic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years:

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How this model should be used:
This model may be applied at the individual level to predict the risk, and to encourage risk reduction. It may also be used at the population level, with reference to other relative risks from published studies, to estimate the potential population risk reduction that may be gained by primary prevention of the major risk factors of knee OA.

Model performance:
Upon internal validation (N=424), the area under the ROC curve showed a moderate discriminative ability of the model (c-index: 0.69, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.76).1 External validation was performed on two different cohorts: the (2) Nottingham Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) case-control study population (N=3174)2 and (3) the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) cohort study population (N=4796).3  External validation resulted in c-indices of 0.60 (0.55 to 0.64) and 0.74 (0.72 to 0.76), respectively. The Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 statistic for goodness-of-fit showed good calibration in all three patient cohorts.

Source:
1 Zhang W, McWilliams DF, Ingham SL, et al. Nottingham knee osteoarthritis risk prediction models. Ann Rheum Dis. 2011;70(9):1599-604.
2 Zhang W, Robertson J, Doherty S, et al. Index to ring finger length ratio and the risk of osteoarthritis. Arthritis Rheum. 2008;58:137-44.
3 Fawaz-Estrup F. The osteoarthritis initiative: an overview. Med Health R I. 2004;87:169-71.

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This model is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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