Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years

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This clinical prediction model estimates the risk of developing symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years using 6 clinical variables (c-index: 0.60-0.79).

Research authors: Zhang W, McWilliams DF, Ingham SL, Doherty SA, Muthuri S, Muir KR, Doherty M.

Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References

★★★

Model author

Evidencio Community

Model ID

499

Version

1.5

Revision date

2016-05-09

Specialty

Orthopaedics

MeSH terms

Osteoarthritis Of Knee

Clinical Prediction Rule

Joint Pain

Model type

Logistic regression ^{(Calculation)}

Status

public

Rating

★ ★ ★

Formula
No Formula defined yet

Condition	Formula

Additional information

Design:
A 12-year retrospective cohort study was undertaken involving four general practices in North Nottinghamshire.¹

Exclusion criteria:
People with terminal illness, psychiatric illness and severe dementia were excluded.¹

Study population:
In total, 424 people were eligible for the study.¹ Individuals were recruited from two baseline community postal questionnaire studies for knee pain.^2,3 Baseline data were collected between 1996 and 1999 from 9429 adults aged 40-79 years on the general practice registers. A follow-up survey was undertaken during 2007–2008 in 5479 individuals who are still registered with the general practices and eligible for the study. Radiographs of both knees at baseline and follow-up were obtained from 424 participants according to availability and willingness to participate.

Source:
¹ Zhang W, McWilliams DF, Ingham SL, et al. Nottingham knee osteoarthritis risk prediction models. Ann Rheum Dis. 2011;70(9):1599-604.
² O’Reilly SC, Muir KR, Doherty M. Screening for pain in knee osteoarthritis: which question? Ann Rheum Dis. 1996:55:931-3.
³ Thomas KS, Muir KR, Doherty M, et al. Home based exercise programme for knee pain and knee osteoarthritis: randomised controlled trial. BMJ. 2002;325:752.

Study Population

Total population size: 424

Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}

Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

Continuous characteristics

Name	Mean	SD	Unit
Age	56.8	7.9	years
Body mass index	25.5	3.5	kg/m2

Name	LL	Q1	Median	Q3	UL	Unit
Occupational risk	0	2	3	4	4	risk score
Duration of follow-up		7	12	12		years

Categorical characteristics

Name	Subset / Group	Nr. of patients
Previous serious knee injury	Yes	25
	No	399
Familial osteoarthritis	Yes	136
	No	288

	Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years
	V-1.5-499.16.05.09
	Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
	Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

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Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years:
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Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years:

Outcome stratification

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Result interpretation

How this model should be used:
This model may be applied at the individual level to predict the risk, and to encourage risk reduction. It may also be used at the population level, with reference to other relative risks from published studies, to estimate the potential population risk reduction that may be gained by primary prevention of the major risk factors of knee OA.

Model performance:
Upon internal validation (N=424), the area under the ROC curve showed a moderate discriminative ability of the model (c-index: 0.70, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.79).¹ External validation was performed on two different cohorts: the (2) Nottingham Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) case-control study population (N=3174)² and (3) the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) cohort study population (N=4796).³External validation resulted in c-indices of 0.60 (0.58 to 0.63) and 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81), respectively. The Hosmer–Lemeshow χ² statistic for goodness-of-fit showed good calibration in all three patient cohorts.

Source:
¹ Zhang W, McWilliams DF, Ingham SL, et al. Nottingham knee osteoarthritis risk prediction models. Ann Rheum Dis. 2011;70(9):1599-604.
² Zhang W, Robertson J, Doherty S, et al. Index to ring finger length ratio and the risk of osteoarthritis. Arthritis Rheum. 2008;58:137-44.
³ Fawaz-Estrup F. The osteoarthritis initiative: an overview. Med Health R I. 2004;87:169-71.

Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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Disclaimer: Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement.

Additional information

Study Population

Continuous characteristics

Categorical characteristics

Related files

Supporting Publications

Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years:
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Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years:

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Study Population

Continuous characteristics

Categorical characteristics

Related files

Supporting Publications

Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years: ...

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Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years:

Outcome stratification

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Result interpretation

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Risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in 12 years:
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