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This model calculates the risk of in-hospital mortality in hemodynamically stable patients with pulmonary embolism. It can be used to stratify patients into different risk categories for in-hospital mortality.
Research authors: Volschan A, Albuquerque D, Tura BR, Knibel M, Esteves JP, Bodanese LC, Silveira F, Pantoja J, Souza PC, Mansur J, Mesquita ET, and the Estudo Multicêntrico de Embolia Pulmonar (EMEP) investigators.
Details
Formula
Study characteristics
Files & References
★★★
Model author
Model ID
595
Version
1.21
Revision date
2020-03-06
Specialty
MeSH terms
Model type
Linear model
(Calculation)
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Additional information
Prospective multicenter chort study of 582 consecutive patients admitted in emergency units or intensive care units with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism and whose diagnosis was confirmed by one or more f the following tests: pulmonary arteriography, spiral CT angiography, magnetic resonance angiography, Doppler echocardiography, pulmonary scintigraphy, or venous duplex scan. Data on demographics, comorbidities and clinical manifestations were collected and included in a logistic regression analysis so as to build the prediction model.Source:
Volschan A, Albuqerque D, Tura BR, Knibel M, Esteves JP, Bodanese LC, et al. Predictors of hospital mortality in hemodynamically stable patients with pulmonary embolism. Arq Bras Cardiol. 2009;93(2):135-40.
Study Population
Total population size: 582Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}
Categorical characteristics
| Name | Subset / Group | Nr. of patients |
|---|---|---|
| Age >65 years | Yes | 391 |
| No | 191 | |
| Previous history of DVT/PE | Yes | 102 |
| No | 480 | |
| Abdominal/pelvic surgery | Yes | 59 |
| No | 523 | |
| Hip/LL fracture | yes | 39 |
| Neoplasia | Yes | 127 |
| No | 455 | |
| Bed rest >72 h | Yes | 194 |
| No | 388 | |
| Chronic cor pulmonale | Yes | 40 |
| No | 542 | |
| Cigarette smoking | Yes | 97 |
| No | 485 | |
| Heart failure | Yes | 88 |
| No | 494 | |
| Stroke | Yes | 33 |
| No | 549 | |
| Chest pain | Yes | 272 |
| No | 310 | |
| Sinus tachycardia | Yes | 232 |
| No | 350 | |
| Syncope | Yes | 32 |
| No | 550 | |
| Dyspnea | Yes | 455 |
| No | 127 | |
| Tachypnea | Yes | 365 |
| No | 117 | |
| Fever | Yes | 61 |
| No | 521 | |
| Cough | Yes | 133 |
| No | 449 | |
| Cyanosis | Yes | 71 |
| No | 511 | |
| Hemoptisis | Yes | 36 |
| No | 546 |
Related files
| Preview | Name | Tags |
|---|---|---|
.png)
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ROC curve (Volschan et al, 2009).png 46.59 kB |
ROC curve |
.png)
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Kaplan Meier curve (Volschan et al, 2009).png 63.67 kB |
Figure (results-page) Kaplan Meier plot |
Supporting Publications
| Title or description | Tags |
|---|---|
| Original research: Volschan A, Albuqerque D, Tura BR, Knibel M, Esteves JP, Bodanese LC, et al. Predictors of hospital mortality in hemodynamically stable patients with pulmonary embolism. Arq Bras Cardiol. 2009;93(2):135-40. | Internal validation Paper Peer review |
Total risk score: ... points
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Result
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Total risk score: points
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Outcome stratification
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Conditional information
Result interpretation
Result interpretation:
In the study group consisting of 582 hemodynamically stable patiens admitted in emergency units or intensive care units with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism, overall in-hospital mortality was 14.1%. After risk stratification, mortalities of 5.4%, 17.8%, and 31.3% were found in the low, moderate and high-risk subgroups, respectively.
Model performance:
The model showed 65.5% sensitivity and 80% specificity. The discriminative power of the model was considered adquate with an area under the curve (c-index) of 0.77.
Source:
Volschan A, Albuqerque D, Tura BR, Knibel M, Esteves JP, Bodanese LC, et al. Predictors of hospital mortality in hemodynamically stable patients with pulmonary embolism. Arq Bras Cardiol. 2009;93(2):135-40.
Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.
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