INFLUENCE: time-dependent locoregional recurrence risk in breast cancer patients - year 1
Calculates the risk in year 1 for locoregional recurrence (LRR) in breast cancer patient (c-index: 0.84).
Research authors: Annemieke Witteveen, Ingrid M. Vliegen, Gabe S. Sonke, Joost M. Klaase, Maarten J. IJzerman, Sabine Siesling
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★★★
Model author
Model ID
701
Version
1.12
Revision date
2019-04-26
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Breast Cancer
  • Locoregional Neoplasm Recurrence
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
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    Formula
    No Formula defined yet
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Study population: 
    Patients were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), a nationwide population-based registry, which records all newly diagnosed tumours since 1989. Women diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer between 2003 and 2006 without distant metastasis, previous, or synchronous tumours (diagnosed within 3 months after the first tumour, treated with curative intent and without neo-adjuvant systemic treatment were selected from the registry (N = 37,230).

    Model development: 
    Variables were selected based on literature and availability of the data. Patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were assessed for their influence on recurrence risk using multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. Firstly, a prediction model for the 5-year LRR risk was developed. Secondly, risks were determined per year conditional on not being diagnosed with recurrence in the previous year(s). 

    Source: 
    Witteveen A, Vliegen IM, Sonke GS et al. Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015; 152(3): 627–636.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 37230
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Age category <50 years 9779
    50-59 years 10601
    60-69 years 8421
    ≥70 years 8477
    Histological type Ductal 29582
    Lobular 4000
    Mixed 1552
    Other 2144
    Grade of differentiation Grade I 7628
    Grade II 15595
    Grade III 11479
    Unknown 2576
    Tumor size ≤2 cm 22611
    2-5 cm 13243
    >5 cm 1094
    Unknown 330
    Multifocal No 23237
    Yes 4168
    Unknown 9873
    Lymph node status Negative 22516
    1-3 positive 10093
    >3 positive 4119
    Unknown 550
    ER status Negative 5417
    Positive 23433
    Unknown 8428
    PR status Negative 9580
    Positive 18877
    Unknown 8821
    Her2-neu status Negative 13832
    Positive 2405
    Unknown 21041
    Number of surgeries 1 33136
    2 3909
    ≥3 233
    Type of surgery Breast conserving 21049
    Non-breast conserving 16229
    Time from last indicence to last OK <30 days 27579
    30-60 days 8205
    >60 days 1494
    Axillary lymph node dissection No 18397
    Yes 18881
    Chemotherapy No 23886
    Yes 13392
    Radiotherapy No 12783
    Yes 24495
    Hormone therapy No 21696
    Yes 15582

    Related files

    The risk in year 1 of a locoregional recurrence is:
    ...

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    Result
    Note
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    The risk in year 1 of a locoregional recurrence is:

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    Outcome stratification

    Result interval {{ additionalResult.min }} to {{ additionalResult.max }}

    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    How this model should be used: 
    This model can be used as an instrument to identify patients with a high risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR) who might benefit from a less or more intensive follow-up after breast cancer and to aid clinical decision making.

    Model performance: 
    The probability measure of the predictive ability given as the c-statistic (area under the ROC curve) was 0.84 for the risk of LRR in year 1, indicating good discriminating ability.

    Source: 
    Witteveen A, Vliegen IM, Sonke GS et al. Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015; 152(3): 627–636.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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