INFLUENCE: risico op locoregionaal recidief bij patiënten met borstkanker in jaar 3
Berekent het risico op een locoregionaal recidief (LRR) bij patiënten met borstkanker in jaar 3 (c-index: 0.70).
Research authors: Annemieke Witteveen, Ingrid M. Vliegen, Gabe S. Sonke, Joost M. Klaase, Maarten J. IJzerman, and Sabine Siesling.
Details Custom formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★★★
Model author
Model ID
774
Version
1.8
Revision date
2017-05-26
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Breast Cancer
  • Locoregional Neoplasm Recurrence
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
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    Formula
    No Formula defined yet
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    Study population: 
    Patients were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), a nationwide population-based registry, which records all newly diagnosed tumours since 1989. Women diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer between 2003 and 2006 without distant metastasis, previous, or synchronous tumours (diagnosed within 3 months after the first tumour, treated with curative intent and without neo-adjuvant systemic treatment were selected from the registry (N = 37,230).

    Model development: 
    Variables were selected based on literature and availability of the data. Patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were assessed for their influence on recurrence risk using multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. Firstly, a prediction model for the 5-year LRR risk was developed. Secondly, risks were determined per year conditional on not being diagnosed with recurrence in the previous year(s). 

    Source: 
    Witteveen A, Vliegen IM, Sonke GS et al. Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015; 152(3): 627–636.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 37230
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Leeftijdscategorie <50 jaar 9779
    50-59 jaar 10601
    60-69 jaar 8421
    ≥70 jaar 8477
    Histologisch type Ductaal 29582
    Lobulair 4000
    Gemixed 1552
    Anders 2144
    Differentiatiegraad Graad I 7628
    Graad II 15595
    Graad III 11479
    Onbekend 2576
    Tumor grootte ≤2 cm 22611
    2-5 cm 13243
    >5 cm 1094
    Onbekend 330
    Multifocaal Nee 23237
    Ja 4168
    Onbekend 9873
    Lymfeklier status Negatief 22516
    1-3 positieve klieren 10093
    >3 positieve klieren 4119
    Onbekend 550
    Oestrogeen receptor status Negatief 5417
    Positief 23433
    Onbekend 8428
    Progesteron receptor status Negatief 9580
    Positief 18877
    Onbekend 8821
    Her2-neu status Negative 13832
    Positive 2405
    Unknown 21041
    Aantal verrichte operaties 1 33136
    2 3909
    ≥3 233
    Type chirurgie Mammasparend 21049
    Niet mammasparend 16229
    Tijd tot laatste OK <30 dagen 27579
    30-60 dagen 8205
    >60 dagen 1494
    Axillaire lymfeklier dissectie Nee 18397
    Ja 18881
    Chemotherapie Nee 23886
    Ja 13392
    Radiotherapie Nee 12783
    Ja 24495
    Hormoon therapie Nee 21696
    Ja 15582

    Related files

    Het risico op een lokaal recidief in jaar 3 bedraagt:
    ...

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    Result
    Note
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    Het risico op een lokaal recidief in jaar 3 bedraagt:

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    Outcome stratification

    Result interval {{ additionalResult.min }} to {{ additionalResult.max }}

    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    Beoogde toepassing INFLUENCE predictiemodel: 
    Dit model kan worden ingezet als instrument om borstkanker patiënten met een hoog risico op een locoregionaal recidief te identificeren. Op basis hiervan kan een inschatting worden gemaakt ten aanzien van de gewenste intensitieit van follow-up. 

    Model prestaties: 
    Het oppervlak onder de ROC-curve bleek bij externe validatie 0.70 te bedragen. De discriminatie van het model wordt daarmee adequaat geacht. 

    Bron: 
    Witteveen A, Vliegen IM, Sonke GS et al. Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015; 152(3): 627–636.

    {{ file.classification }}

    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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