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Berekent het risico op een locoregionaal recidief (LRR) bij patiënten met borstkanker in jaar 3 (c-index: 0.70).
Research authors: Annemieke Witteveen, Ingrid M. Vliegen, Gabe S. Sonke, Joost M. Klaase, Maarten J. IJzerman, and Sabine Siesling.
Details
Formula
Study characteristics
Files & References
★★★★
Model author
Model ID
774
Version
1.8
Revision date
2017-05-26
Specialty
MeSH terms
Model type
Logistic regression
(Calculation)
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Additional information
Study population:Patients were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), a nationwide population-based registry, which records all newly diagnosed tumours since 1989. Women diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer between 2003 and 2006 without distant metastasis, previous, or synchronous tumours (diagnosed within 3 months after the first tumour, treated with curative intent and without neo-adjuvant systemic treatment were selected from the registry (N = 37,230).
Model development:
Variables were selected based on literature and availability of the data. Patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were assessed for their influence on recurrence risk using multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. Firstly, a prediction model for the 5-year LRR risk was developed. Secondly, risks were determined per year conditional on not being diagnosed with recurrence in the previous year(s).
Source:
Witteveen A, Vliegen IM, Sonke GS et al. Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015; 152(3): 627–636.
Study Population
Total population size: 37230Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}
Categorical characteristics
| Name | Subset / Group | Nr. of patients |
|---|---|---|
| Leeftijdscategorie | <50 jaar | 9779 |
| 50-59 jaar | 10601 | |
| 60-69 jaar | 8421 | |
| ≥70 jaar | 8477 | |
| Histologisch type | Ductaal | 29582 |
| Lobulair | 4000 | |
| Gemixed | 1552 | |
| Anders | 2144 | |
| Differentiatiegraad | Graad I | 7628 |
| Graad II | 15595 | |
| Graad III | 11479 | |
| Onbekend | 2576 | |
| Tumor grootte | ≤2 cm | 22611 |
| 2-5 cm | 13243 | |
| >5 cm | 1094 | |
| Onbekend | 330 | |
| Multifocaal | Nee | 23237 |
| Ja | 4168 | |
| Onbekend | 9873 | |
| Lymfeklier status | Negatief | 22516 |
| 1-3 positieve klieren | 10093 | |
| >3 positieve klieren | 4119 | |
| Onbekend | 550 | |
| Oestrogeen receptor status | Negatief | 5417 |
| Positief | 23433 | |
| Onbekend | 8428 | |
| Progesteron receptor status | Negatief | 9580 |
| Positief | 18877 | |
| Onbekend | 8821 | |
| Her2-neu status | Negative | 13832 |
| Positive | 2405 | |
| Unknown | 21041 | |
| Aantal verrichte operaties | 1 | 33136 |
| 2 | 3909 | |
| ≥3 | 233 | |
| Type chirurgie | Mammasparend | 21049 |
| Niet mammasparend | 16229 | |
| Tijd tot laatste OK | <30 dagen | 27579 |
| 30-60 dagen | 8205 | |
| >60 dagen | 1494 | |
| Axillaire lymfeklier dissectie | Nee | 18397 |
| Ja | 18881 | |
| Chemotherapie | Nee | 23886 |
| Ja | 13392 | |
| Radiotherapie | Nee | 12783 |
| Ja | 24495 | |
| Hormoon therapie | Nee | 21696 |
| Ja | 15582 |
Related files
| Preview | Name | Tags |
|---|---|---|
|
624.62 kB | Paper Peer review |
|
3.33 kB | Institute Logo |
|
57.54 kB | Institute Logo |
Supporting Publications
| Title or description | Tags |
|---|---|
| Originele studie: Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients (Witteveen et al, 2015). | External validation Internal validation Paper Peer review |
Het risico op een lokaal recidief in jaar 3 bedraagt: ...
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Result
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Het risico op een lokaal recidief in jaar 3 bedraagt:
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Outcome stratification
Result interval
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Conditional information
Result interpretation
Beoogde toepassing INFLUENCE predictiemodel:
Dit model kan worden ingezet als instrument om borstkanker patiënten met een hoog risico op een locoregionaal recidief te identificeren. Op basis hiervan kan een inschatting worden gemaakt ten aanzien van de gewenste intensitieit van follow-up.
Model prestaties:
Het oppervlak onder de ROC-curve bleek bij externe validatie 0.70 te bedragen. De discriminatie van het model wordt daarmee adequaat geacht.
Bron:
Witteveen A, Vliegen IM, Sonke GS et al. Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015; 152(3): 627–636.
Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.
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