INFLUENCE: risico op locoregionaal recidief bij patiënten met borstkanker

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INFLUENCE: risico op locoregionaal recidief bij patiënten met borstkanker in jaar 3

Berekent het risico op een locoregionaal recidief (LRR) bij patiënten met borstkanker in jaar 3 (c-index: 0.70).

Research authors: Annemieke Witteveen, Ingrid M. Vliegen, Gabe S. Sonke, Joost M. Klaase, Maarten J. IJzerman, and Sabine Siesling.

Public
Oncology
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Het risico op een lokaal recidief in jaar 3 bedraagt:

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Conditional information

Beoogde toepassing INFLUENCE predictiemodel:
Dit model kan worden ingezet als instrument om borstkanker patiënten met een hoog risico op een locoregionaal recidief te identificeren. Op basis hiervan kan een inschatting worden gemaakt ten aanzien van de gewenste intensitieit van follow-up.

Model prestaties:
Het oppervlak onder de ROC-curve bleek bij externe validatie 0.70 te bedragen. De discriminatie van het model wordt daarmee adequaat geacht.

Bron:
Witteveen A, Vliegen IM, Sonke GS et al. Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015; 152(3): 627–636.

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Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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Additional information

Details

Model author

A. Witteveen

Model ID

774

Version

1.10

Revision date

2020-03-06

Specialty

Oncology

Model type

Logistic regression ^{(Calculation)}

MeSH terms

Breast Cancer

Locoregional Neoplasm Recurrence

Rating

Status

Public

Formula
No Formula defined yet

Condition	Formula

Study characteristics

Additional information

Study population:
Patients were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), a nationwide population-based registry, which records all newly diagnosed tumours since 1989. Women diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer between 2003 and 2006 without distant metastasis, previous, or synchronous tumours (diagnosed within 3 months after the first tumour, treated with curative intent and without neo-adjuvant systemic treatment were selected from the registry (N = 37,230).

Model development:
Variables were selected based on literature and availability of the data. Patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were assessed for their influence on recurrence risk using multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. Firstly, a prediction model for the 5-year LRR risk was developed. Secondly, risks were determined per year conditional on not being diagnosed with recurrence in the previous year(s).

Source:
Witteveen A, Vliegen IM, Sonke GS et al. Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015; 152(3): 627–636.

Study Population

Total population size: 37230

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Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

Categorical characteristics

Name	Subset / Group	Nr. of patients
Leeftijdscategorie	<50 jaar	9779
Leeftijdscategorie	50-59 jaar	10601
Leeftijdscategorie	60-69 jaar	8421
Leeftijdscategorie	≥70 jaar	8477
Histologisch type	Ductaal	29582
Histologisch type	Lobulair	4000
Histologisch type	Gemixed	1552
Histologisch type	Anders	2144
Differentiatiegraad	Graad I	7628
Differentiatiegraad	Graad II	15595
Differentiatiegraad	Graad III	11479
Differentiatiegraad	Onbekend	2576
Tumor grootte	≤2 cm	22611
Tumor grootte	2-5 cm	13243
Tumor grootte	>5 cm	1094
Tumor grootte	Onbekend	330
Multifocaal	Nee	23237
Multifocaal	Ja	4168
Multifocaal	Onbekend	9873
Lymfeklier status	Negatief	22516
Lymfeklier status	1-3 positieve klieren	10093
Lymfeklier status	>3 positieve klieren	4119
Lymfeklier status	Onbekend	550
Oestrogeen receptor status	Negatief	5417
Oestrogeen receptor status	Positief	23433
Oestrogeen receptor status	Onbekend	8428
Progesteron receptor status	Negatief	9580
Progesteron receptor status	Positief	18877
Progesteron receptor status	Onbekend	8821
Her2-neu status	Negative	13832
Her2-neu status	Positive	2405
Her2-neu status	Unknown	21041
Aantal verrichte operaties	1	33136
Aantal verrichte operaties	2	3909
Aantal verrichte operaties	≥3	233
Type chirurgie	Mammasparend	21049
Type chirurgie	Niet mammasparend	16229
Tijd tot laatste OK	<30 dagen	27579
Tijd tot laatste OK	30-60 dagen	8205
Tijd tot laatste OK	>60 dagen	1494
Axillaire lymfeklier dissectie	Nee	18397
Axillaire lymfeklier dissectie	Ja	18881
Chemotherapie	Nee	23886
Chemotherapie	Ja	13392
Radiotherapie	Nee	12783
Radiotherapie	Ja	24495
Hormoon therapie	Nee	21696
Hormoon therapie	Ja	15582

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Disclaimer: Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement.