Risk of 90-day mortality after DP-CAR
Calculate the preoperative risk of 90-day mortality after distal pancreatectomy with celiac axis resection (DP-CAR) for pancreatic cancer. 
Research authors: Sjors Klompmaker, Niek A Peters, Jony van Hilst, Claudio Bassi, Ugo Boggi, Olivier R Busch, Willem Niesen, Thomas M van Gulik, Ammar A Javed, Jorg Kleeff, Manabu Kawai, Mickael Lesurtel, Carlo Lombardo, A James Moser, Ken-ichi Okada, Irinel Popescu, Raj Prasad, Roberto Salvia, Alain Sauvanet, Christian Sturesson, Matthew J Weiss, Herbert J Zeh, Amer H Zureikat, Hiroki Yamaue, Christopher L Wolfgang, Melissa E Hogg, Marc G Besselink, the E-AHPBA DP-CAR study group
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Model author
Model ID
982
Version
1.36
Revision date
2019-01-07
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Pancreatic Cancer
  • Pancreatic Disease
  • Pancreas
  • Surgery, General
  • Minimally Invasive Surgery
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
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    Formula
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    Additional information

    ABSTRACT

    BACKGROUND: Distal pancreatectomy with celiac axis resection (DP-CAR) is a treatment option for selected patients with pancreatic cancer involving the celiac axis. A recent multicenter European study reported a 90-day mortality rate of 16%, highlighting the importance of patient selection. The authors constructed a risk score to predict 90-day mortality and assessed oncologic outcomes.

    METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study investigated patients undergoing DP-CAR at 20 European centers from 12 countries (model design 2000–2016) and three very-high-volume international centers in the United States and Japan (model validation 2004–2017). The model was first designed in 1661 distal pancreatectomy patiens. The DP-CAR risk score was based on these model coefficents. The area under receiver operator curve (AUC) and calibration plots were used for validation. Secondary outcomes included resection margin status, adjuvant therapy, and survival.

    RESULTS: For 191 DP-CAR patients, the 90-day mortality rate was 5.5% (95 confidence interval [CI], 2.2–11%) at 5 high-volume (≥ 1 DP-CAR/year) and 18% (95 CI, 9–30%) at 18 low-volume DP-CAR centers (P = 0.015). A risk score with age, sex, body mass index (BMI), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, multivisceral resection, open versus minimally invasive surgery, and low- versus high-volume center performed well in both the design and validation cohorts (AUC, 0.79 vs 0.74; P = 0.642). For 174 patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, the R0 resection rate was 60%, neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies were applied for respectively 69% and 67% of the patients, and the median overall survival period was 19 months (95 CI, 15–25 months).

    CONCLUSIONS: When performed for selected patients at high-volume centers, DP-CAR is associated with acceptable 90-day mortality and overall survival. The authors propose a 90-day mortality risk score to improve patient selection and outcomes, with DP-CAR volume as the dominant predictor.

    Study Population

    Total population size: 191

    Additional characteristics

    No additional characteristics defined

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    The predicted risk of 90-day mortality is:
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    The predicted risk of 90-day mortality is:

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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