Early prediction of hospital admission for emergency department patients - Evidencio
Early prediction of hospital admission for emergency department patients
Patients presenting at the emergency department (ED) are at risk for hospital admission, functional decline and mortality, with older patients having even higher risks. The current model was developed to assess potential differences in independent predictors between age groups. 

The model is developed as part of the APOP study (acronym for: Acutely Presenting Older Patient).

The model contains two separate equations, one for patients aged <70 years, and the other for patients ≥70 years. The latter model did not use age, gender, type of specialist and heart rate as individual predictors. 

The model predicts a patients' individual probability of hospital admission. 

Please note that the model is lacking proper external validation and might not provide accurate predictions. Therefore, outcomes should be interpreted with care before implementing the model in clinical practice. 
Research authors: Jacinta A. Lucke, Jelle de Gelder, Fleur Clarijs, Christian Heringhaus, Anton J.M. de Craen, Anne J. Fogteloo, Gerard J. Blauw, Bas de Groot, Simon P. Mooijaart
Version: 1.25
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The predicted probability of hospital admission is: %

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The models created in this study indicate that predictors of hospital admission from the ED are similar for younger and older patients, but differ in their prognostic capabilities. The overall prognostic  ability of the models was greater for the patients under 70, but the model for older patients is better at identifying the group of patients very likely to be admitted.

These results constitute preparatory work towards creating a screening instrument that could adequately predict hospital admission, particularly for older adults.

Note: It is uncertain whether the outcomes of this model are clinically useful in other hospitals since the model has not been externally validated. The admission rate in the patients used to develop the model may be different in other hospitals. 

 

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This algorithm is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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