PLCOm2012: Selection criteria for lung cancer screening
In the United States the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) used risk factors for lung cancer (e.g., ≥30 pack-years of smoking and <15 years since quitting) as selection criteria for lung-cancer screening. Use of an accurate model that incorporates additional risk factors to select persons for screening may identify more persons who have lung cancer or in whom lung cancer will develop.
Research authors: Martin C. Tammemägi, Hormuzd A. Katki, William G. Hocking, Timothy R. Church, Neil Caporaso, Paul A. Kvale, Anil K. Chaturvedi, Gerard A. Silvestri, Tom L. Riley, John Commins, Christine D. Berg
Details Custom formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★★★
Model author
Model ID
992
Version
1.6
Revision date
2017-10-17
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Lung Cancer
  • Screening
  • Smoking
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
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    Formula
    No Formula defined yet
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    We modified the 2011 lung-cancer risk-prediction model from our Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial to ensure applicability to NLST data; risk was the probability of a diagnosis of lung cancer during the 6-year study period. We developed and validated the model (PLCOM2012) with data from the 80,375 persons in the PLCO control and intervention groups who had ever smoked. In the validation data set, 14,144 of 37,332 persons (37.9%) met NLST criteria. For comparison, 14,144 highest-risk persons were considered positive (eligible for screening) according to PLCOM2012 criteria. We compared the accuracy of PLCOM2012 criteria with NLST criteria to detect lung cancer. Cox models were used to evaluate whether the reduction in mortality among 53,202 persons undergoing low-dose computed tomographic screening in the NLST differed according to risk.

    The shown study characteristics show the PLCO controls group

     

    Study Population

    Total population size: 39928
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Age 62.5 5.3 Years
    BMI 27.4 4.8 Kg/m2
    Smoking intensity 24.9 14.7 Cig/day
    Smoking duration 27.7 13.8 Years
    Smoking quit time in former smokers 20.2 12.1 Years

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Race/ethnicity White 35308
    Black 2234
    Hispanic 814
    Asian 1198
    Native American 242
    Pacific Islander 108
    Education No high school diploma 3490
    High school graduate 8816
    Some extra training 5478
    Some college 9272
    College graduate 6457
    Postdoc or professional degree 6256
    Personal history of cancer No 38038
    Yes 1874
    Family history of lung cancer No 33906
    Yes 4523
    COPD No 35944
    Yes 3593
    Smoking status Former 31985
    Current 7924

    Related files

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    Supporting Publications

    The calculated 6-year risk of lung cancer is:
    ...

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    Result
    Note
    Notes are only visible in the result download and will not be saved by Evidencio

    The calculated 6-year risk of lung cancer is:

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    The use of the PLCOM2012 model was shown to be more sensitive than the NLST criteria for lung-cancer detection.


    Outcomes of the model can be used for the selection of individuals for lung cancer screening.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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