Predicting critical illness on initial diagnosis of COVID-19 based on easily-obtained clinical variables: Development and validation of the PRIORITY model
OBJECTIVE
To develop and validate a prediction model, based on clinical history and examination findings on initial diagnosis of COVID-19, to identify patients at risk of critical outcomes.

DESIGN
National multicenter cohort study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE
Composite of in-hospital death, mechanical ventilation or admission to intensive care unit.
Research authors: Miguel Martinez-Lacalzada, Adrián Viteri-Noël, Luis Manzano, Martin Fabregate-Fuente, Manuel Rubio-Rivas, Sara Luis Garcia , Francisco Arnalich Fernández, José Luis Beato Pérez, Juan Antonio Vargas Núñez, Elpidio Calvo Manuel, Alexia-Constanza Espiño, Santiago J. Freire Castro, Jose Loureiro-Amigo, Paula Maria Pesqueira Fontan, Adela Pina, Ana María Álvarez Suárez, Andrea Silva Asiain, Beatriz García López, Jairo Luque del Pino, Jaime Sanz Cánovas, Paloma Chazarra Pérez, Gema María García García, Jesús Millán Núñez-Cortés, José Manuel Casas Rojo, Ricardo Gómez Huelgas
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★
Model author
Model ID
2344
Version
1.36
Revision date
2021-03-03
MeSH terms
  • Coronavirus Infections
  • Humans
  • Logistic Regression
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral
  • Decision Analysis
  • Prognosis
  • Critical Illness
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
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    Formula
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    Condition Formula

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    Study Population

    Total population size: 7850
    Males: {{ model.numberOfMales }}
    Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

    Continuous characteristics

    Name Mean SD Unit
    Age 65.8 16.4 years
    Systolic Blood Pressure 129 21.5 mmHg

    Categorical characteristics

    Name Subset / Group Nr. of patients
    Cardiovascular disease Yes 1974
    No 5876
    SpO2≤93 % or supplemental oxigen needed Yes 4152
    No 3698
    Chronic renal disease Yes 488
    No 7362
    Dyspnea Yes 4427
    No 3423
    Confusion Yes 849
    No 7001
    Taquipnea Yes 2271
    No 5579
    Predicting critical illness on initial diagnosis of COVID-19 based on easily-obtained clinical variables: Development and validation of the PRIORITY model
    V-1.36-2344.21.03.03
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
    Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

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    Result
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    Risk for COVID-19 Critical Illness

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    Outcome stratification

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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