Simplified PLCOm2012: Selection criteria for lung cancer screening
In the United States the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) used risk factors for lung cancer (e.g., ≥30 pack-years of smoking and <15 years since quitting) as selection criteria for lung-cancer screening. Use of an accurate model that incorporates additional risk factors to select persons for screening may identify more persons who have lung cancer or in whom lung cancer will develop.

Current model assumes only information is known regarding age and smoking history. Using the full PLCOm2012 model may provide more accurate predictions. 
Research authors: Martin C. Tammemägi, Hormuzd A. Katki, William G. Hocking, Timothy R. Church, Neil Caporaso, Paul A. Kvale, Anil K. Chaturvedi, Gerard A. Silvestri, Tom L. Riley, John Commins, Christine D. Berg
Details Formula Study characteristics Files & References
★★★
Model author
Model ID
993
Version
1.6
Revision date
2020-08-06
Specialty
MeSH terms
  • Lung Cancer
  • Screening
  • Smoking
  • Model type
    Logistic regression (Calculation)
    Status
    public
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    Formula
    No Formula defined yet
    Condition Formula

    Additional information

    We modified the 2011 lung-cancer risk-prediction model from our Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial to ensure applicability to NLST data; risk was the probability of a diagnosis of lung cancer during the 6-year study period. We developed and validated the model (PLCOM2012) with data from the 80,375 persons in the PLCO control and intervention groups who had ever smoked. In the validation data set, 14,144 of 37,332 persons (37.9%) met NLST criteria. For comparison, 14,144 highest-risk persons were considered positive (eligible for screening) according to PLCOM2012 criteria. We compared the accuracy of PLCOM2012 criteria with NLST criteria to detect lung cancer. Cox models were used to evaluate whether the reduction in mortality among 53,202 persons undergoing low-dose computed tomographic screening in the NLST differed according to risk.

     

    Study Population

    Total population size: 36286

    Additional characteristics

    No additional characteristics defined
    Simplified PLCOm2012: Selection criteria for lung cancer screening
    V-1.6-993.20.08.06
    Refer to Intended Use for instructions before use
    Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ, Haaksbergen, the Netherlands

    Related files

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    Supporting Publications

    The calculated 6-year risk of lung cancer is:
    ...

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    Result
    Note
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    The calculated 6-year risk of lung cancer is:

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    Outcome stratification

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    Conditional information

    Result interpretation

    The use of the PLCOM2012 model was shown to be more sensitive than the NLST criteria for lung-cancer detection.

    Since this model is simplified, the model assumes that the participant was white, had a BMI of 27 with some college education, no COPD, no personal history of cancer, and no family history of lung cancer. If these assumptions do not match the participant, please use the full PLCOm2012 model.

    Outcomes of the model can be used for the selection of individuals for lung cancer screening.

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    Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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