Breast Carcinoma Mortality in Women Who Do Not Receive Adjuvant Therapy
Continuous prognostic model to predict breast carcinoma mortality more accurately compared with the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI).
Research authors: Kattan MW, Giri D, Panageas KS, Hummer A, Cranor M, van Zee KJ, Hudis CA, Norton L, Borgen P, and Tan LK.
Version: 1.43
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Probability of 15-year breast carcinoma–specific mortality: %

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Conditional information

Context information: 
This model contains additional variables to the well-known Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) risk score.1 It was based on a continuous function for calculating the probability of disease-specific death, which previously exhibited greater prognostic accuracy compared with risk group–based models.2,3

How this model should be used.
In addition to being useful for patient counseling, the model also has the potential to assist physicians in deciding whether adjuvant therapy is warranted in a given situation.

Model performance:
This model predicted disease-specific death more accurately compared with the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NIP) upon internal validation (c-index: 0.70 vs 0.61, respectively). Model calibration was considered adequate (Figure 1). External validation of the model is needed to further evaluate model robustness and generalizability. 

Source: 

  1. Kattan MW, Giri D, Panageas KS, et al. A tool for predicting breast carcinoma mortality in women who do not receive adjuvant therapy. Cancer. 2004 Dec 1;101(11):2509-15.
  2. Kattan MW, Leung DH, Brennan MF. A postoperative nomogram for 12-year sarcoma-specific death. J Clin Oncol. 2002; 20: 791–796. 
  3. Kattan MW, Zelefsky MJ, Kupelian PA, et al. Pretreatment nomogram for predicting the outcome of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2000; 18: 3352–3359.

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